The ‘surprise’ of Brexit

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According to one report¹, out of 168 polls that were conducted before the Brexit vote of 2016, fewer than a third predicted the UK would vote to leave the European Union. Despite this sentiment, our view after in-depth analysis and in talking with senior Brexit campaign advisors, was that a Brexit vote was highly likely. Our short positioning of sterling on the day the results were announced, and our long EU duration positioning that we undertook the following week, generated significant returns for our clients.

^{1.What UK Thinks, conducted between 4 September 2015 to 22 June 2016}